Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
