Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
